Several Scenario’s – How much is FCR worth if it gets it act together

I might be talking out of my ass, and crazy, but believe that given FCR is now coming out of the last chance saloon, and the resource cycle is coming to favour resource companies, FCR is now likely to be sitting on very valuable assets in the shape of Toral and Lago in Northern Spain.

It begs the question of how much are those assets worth. The answer as always, is it depends.

Some of the ‘more realistic’ and simplistic future scenario’s IMO are:

  1. FCR simply sells off the assets as JORC 2012 assessments are received for both Toral and then (way in the future IMO) Lago.
    1. FCR needs a buyer.
    2. But Zinc is in demand.
    3. Price in the ground – undeveloped could be $400  per tonne – straight to FCR
  2. Toral – FCR goes into a JV – say 50:50 and mines. If the mine extraction cost is 50% then 50% of the fluctuating Zinc price, say $3200 per tonne * tonnage gives a ballpark value of the asset to be shared.
  3. Lago – ditto …

Now some caveats…

I am pricing it on Zinc only, and ignoring all the excitement coming out of FCR which indicates it could be higher tonnage. I have also seen higher tonnage estimates on BB’s but cannot find the original source.

So what are realistic estimates? How many tonnes are there in Toral ?  Well I found one older report from a previous owner that reckons 4m tonnes. This is Toral only.

So let’s price it on 4m Tonnes. And let’s assume every last option is taken up! There is an RNS that says 8m Tonnes BTW so I think 4m is prudent!

 

Scenario 1 is worth (say $400 * 4,000,000 Tonnes) /shares (3,055,281,439 + Bird Options  185,249,929  + Beaufort Options 50,000,000) = $0.49c = £0.37p

37 pence is a significant multiple of the current 0.0008 pence share price! 662 times !

Scenario 2 is worth ($3200/2 (extraction cost) then /2 (JV) = $800 tonne – after all you would expect to be paid for getting it out of the ground which equates to £0.74 per share or 1324 times!

More tonnage =  more value – and that’s just Toral – there is also Scenario 3 – Lago to consider

Spain Map

All eyes are now on the JORC 2012 for Toral – end of the year cannot come quick enough!

And that’s why it’s a sitter….. and the best recovery play on AIM at the moment… for the brave… I am accumulating…. 🙂

DYOR. And if there are assumptions that are more realistic then let me know…

Ferrum Crescent – Additional Fund Raising via Placing

An interesting development with FCR in that Colin Bird has taken a stake in a private placing.

So who is Colin Bird? See here and here

With regard to Jubilee Platinum – there are interesting comments at 3:15 from the Jubilee CEO  about going into base metals…. https://www.beaufortsecurities.com/jubilee-platinum:-company-update-c-2-p-453

Zinc is mentioned.

The Toral asset is potentially huge in Zinc. I am trying to figure out if there is potential synergy here.

In addition the recent buy-in to a Zinc Project by Jubilee Platinum is coincidental? Or is the Gallileo Resources (another Colin Bird outfit) Zinc exploration in Zambia coincidental? Both are JV’s with BMR Group …

I just don’t think it’s a coincidence 🙂 It’s a strategic move on Zinc assets IMO.

And one last thing, JIM Nominees Ltd who recently declared a 4.55% holding in Ferrum Crescent .. well they also own 4.42% in Jubilee Platinum and 3.95% in Galileo Reources… coincidence no doubt.

Interesting times ahead for Zinc and for Ferrum for sure.

Ferrum Crescent Ltd

Not for widows and Orphans and plenty of Due Diligence on your part is required!

However, this one has me interested again. Why?

I suppose some new management who look like they know what they are doing always helps!

In addition, a recent TR01 of a holder who has gone from 0.5% to 4.5% makes me step back and ask even  more questions and I find that recent drilling activities are looking like they will bear fruit – this is a change from about a year ago. Selling off assets no longer of interest is also a prudent measure.

One thing thas has clicked with me is the fact that the recent drilling at Toral is looking at historic ‘overlooked‘ Lead Zinc Mineralisation and given the excitement aeound the findings I can see why Ferrum is now full steam ahead to get a JOC 2012 estimate which will include the tonnage found in previous report  ( NI-43 101 compliant) PLUS the new stuff… !

This is interesting https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/activity/78594/ .. and

Some interesting video’s – worth watching one by one….

 









 

As a result I have taken a large position and will continue accumulating.

 

I expect some up’s and down’s for sure. Maybe it will be a buckaroo share as games always come to shares that show promise IMO. I’m holding on.

Angus Energy – Performance

What a performance! I have been happy with this share – I accumulated and it’s paid off handsomely 🙂

See here

I think there is more mileage but have been quickly de-risking in a sensible way over the last month.

DYOR

 

 

TLOU – Botswana – Coal Bed Methane (CBM) – Gas to Power

What’s all the fuss about? Well TLOU Energy is an interesting company for sure. With a seemingly highly professional approach to business and very good PI communication skills, it has some solid entrepreneurs on the board with ‘form’ for returning large capital growth to shareholders. e.g Tony Gilby, and a member of the board who has a solid reputation within the highest ministerial circles in Botswana. TLOU also has solid deals with IPC (the UK’s leading power developer)  to work on the Botswana CBM RFP for a gas fired energy plant – see here. There is also a investment company called Quantum in the frame ($3.7bn infrastructure fund).

TLOU has received a Request for a Proposal (RFP) to supply up to 100MW of energy capacity within Botswana. There is one other competitor who has been offered the opportunity of bidding for 50Mw. 100Mw in total. If you DYOR – and I mean solid serious research and not cursory research – on the competitor you might conclude that it’s not a 50:50 bet. My money is on TLOU.

An interesting parliamentary statement in 2014 sets out the issue – here .  Basically – there is a chronic shortage of energy. The country is using expensive imported diesel to power electricity energy plants, and  yet cleaner Botswana gas is available – CBM. The Botswana government is now seeking CBM as the energy to resolve the energy shortfall. Expertise lies within several companies – TLOU is one of them.

Various audio recordings can be found here. The latest presentation can be found here.

I continue to accumulate.

 

SDX Energy – Circle Oil

Well, it looks like SDX Energy are going to get some additional acreage in Egypt, and new acreage in Morocco as shown below. It gets my vote for sure :-).

I also noticed Malcy mentioning that SDX Energy would be on this years bucket list – always a good sign – but missed so far by the market – even better for now as I accumulate.

“As this moment in time I would give the benefit of the doubt to SDX, a company that is very much on the short list for the new bucket list.” Malcy

The statement below was likely in response to Broker Man Dan’s comments on a potential placing – which scared the market, but has since recovered – another good sign.

SDX ENERGY INC

(“SDX” or the “Company”)

 

STATEMENT REGARDNG MEDIA SPECULATION

London – 11 January, 2017 – SDX notes the recent media speculation concerning a potential acquisition and material equity fundraising.

In line with its stated strategy of seeking value accretive opportunities to expand the asset base in the North Africa region, SDX is pleased to confirm that it has entered into non-binding heads of terms (“HoT”) with Circle Oil plc (“Circle Oil”) for the acquisition of Circle Oil’s Egyptian and Moroccan businesses (the “Acquisition”).  The HoT has a 30 day exclusivity period.

The Acquisition is subject, inter alia, to the completion of due diligence, documentation, compliance with all regulatory requirements and conclusion of an equity fundraising.  There can be no guarantee that the Acquisition or equity fundraising will proceed.

As previously announced, SDX is entering an exciting period for the Company as it moves into the drilling phase of the work programme at South Disouq in early 2017.  In addition, the well workover program at North West Gemsa continues, as does the redevelopment, waterflood program and facility capacity upgrade at Meseda. 

 

Further announcements will be made in due course as and when appropriate.

Commenting, Paul Welch, CEO, said:

“We have made clear our firm intentions to create shareholder value by growing SDX into a profitable mid-tier E&P company.   Circle’s assets present an attractive opportunity to add material production and reserves at an attractive price.  However, there is no certainty that this deal will be completed.  We remain excited about the near term activities from our existing portfolio, including the near term South Disouq exploration well, and look forward to keeping our shareholders appraised of all developments.”

Chariot – Latest Interims & Presentation

A very good set of interim results was accompanied by a very interesting September presentation that bodes well for Morocco and Namibia. There are some elephant sized opportunities in Chariot’s acreage for sure.

The market seems to like what it is seeing.

 

 

Senegal – Mauritania – why does it matter?

I have been asked several times why I care about the worlds largest most recent Senegal oil discovery, or Kosmos world beating Gas discovery in Mauritania.

Ignore country boundaries – it’s rocks that matter! And Chariots acreage is ‘oily’!

From Cairn’s recent 1015 Annual report.

Helios Chariot - Cairn Energy Report - 2015