Chariot and the Chartists

Posted by Oiltap on III

There are several individuals on the Chariot BB’s who ‘claim’ to be Chartists. I prefer to ignore the charts on low volumes. However this may be of use …

Interesting link for chartists http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/168159/is-this-oiler-ready-to-gush-higher-our-chart-man-thinks-so-168159.html

Senegal – Mauritania – why does it matter?

I have been asked several times why I care about the worlds largest most recent Senegal oil discovery, or Kosmos world beating Gas discovery in Mauritania.

Ignore country boundaries – it’s rocks that matter! And Chariots acreage is ‘oily’!

From Cairn’s recent 1015 Annual report.

Helios Chariot - Cairn Energy Report - 2015

Cairn, FAR, Conoco – another home run in Senegal – 100% success rate

Just like Kosmos, the Cairn, FAR, Conoco partnership in Senegal has once again had success with the SNE-4 drill – A 100% Success rate! Add this to the 100%  Kosmos /Chevron success and it would appear that Mauritania/Senegal is about to become a highly commercial and prolific Oil and Gas producer. Chariot’s Mauritania acreage is in the oilier North so I am particularly looking forward to the farm-out. Cairn farmed into the Mauritania acreage for $26 million   in 2013 with a subsequent  license extension  which allowed for further analysis such as seabed coring (always a good sign) which has now completed. It’s time to get the statisticians on the case ….. but the chances for Chariot’s Mauritania acreage to hold oil which sits in the same oil fairway, further North, surrounded by oil shows, and ‘oilier’ look very promising indeed. Kosmos have stated they are heading into their Northern Mauritania acreage where they believe the chances of finding oil are much higher.  We are elephant hunting!Helios Chariot - Mauritania - May 2016 - 2

Helios Chariot - Mauritania - May 2016

Helios Chariot - Probability of Successive Oil Well Exploration Success

 

Chariot – 3d Investment to date $115.5m

A useful summary posted by TexDrilla on III

Assets to raise cash and/ or carried wells from via farm outs:

3D seismic investment to date:

Morocco Rabat Deep: 1,075km² & Mohamedia: 375km² ~US$11 million (2014)
Mauritania C-19: 3,500km² ~US$26 million (2013)
Namibia Central Blocks: 6,100km² ~US$41 million (2012 & 2016)
Namibia Southern Blocks 3,000km² ~US$30 million (2009)
Brazil Barreirinhas Basin: 800km² ~US$7.5 million (2016)
Total 14,850km²: ~US$115.5 million

Cash and/or Carry (3D only) received from farmouts to date:

Morocco Rabat Deep: ENI 40%: so far undisclosed sum of cash & carried well (2016)
Morocco Rabat Deep: Woodside 25% ~US$13 million (2014)
Mauritania C-19: Cairn 35%: ~US$26 million (2013)
Namibia Central Blocks: Azinam 10%: ~US$12.5 million (2011)
Namibia Southern Blocks: PetroBras 50%: ~US$15 million (2009)
Total US$66.5 million

Interest left to generate Cash & Carry from:

Morocco Rabat: 50% (farmed out 40% to ENI, awaiting approvals)
Morocco Mohamedia: 75%
Mauritania C-19: 55%
Namibia Central Blocks: 65%
Namibia Southern Blocks: 85%
Brazil Blocks: 100%

Chariot – a great week – one of many to come.

Chariot had an outstanding week this week and the Penny has started to drop on its massive transformational potential.

With a free carry announced the week before on Morocco with ENI, in addition to Woodsides involvement,  and then Tullow entering the drilling phase with Pancontinental in nearby Nambia acreage and in the current climate, it sends a massive vote of confidence on both Moroccan and Namibian acreage.  The cash back (to be disclosed) from ENI to Chariot will bolster its already good cash pile. Chariot therefore has a strong cash position,  more cash to come, a free carry – and that’s just the start. The increase in share price has been great – but the market has not yet valued the free carry! yet ….. and that’s a massive opportunity.

The Morocco farm out has, however,  released the pressure valve for long term shareholders a tad, and will play into Larry’s negotiations for further farm-outs. You can bet on it. Larry is a tough negotiator which has been painful at times, but will pay off going forward. (FYI: See here for an idea of potential back costs we are looking at in farm-out negotiations).

The change in share price trend could be seen a few weeks back although I must admit, I thought it was due to the Mauritania and Senegal success of Kosmos and Cairn and their respective partners. Given Kosmos and Cairn have had some of the largest discoveries in the world of both Oil and Gas in the last few years – and Chariot is in the same oil and gas fairway – you have to wonder what Larry will get for the Mauritania acreage! I expect it to be farmed out soon – and I expect more cash. Interestingly, Cairn are also our partner in Mauritania. DYOR and check how  many small AIM oil companies have a significant interest in Mauritanian acreage with its massive upside .. hint – there are only two. Chariot is one of them.

Chariot therefore, in my personal opinion,  has a very realistic chance of getting another RNS in the next 2 quarters for another free carry – and its most likely to be Mauritania. It might also be sooner than we think.

Imagine a situation of an AIM exploration company having two free carries on elephant prospects running simultaneously. Imagine what would happen if Namibia or Brazil then got a free carry and/or cash back. And if Tullow strike oil in Namibia …!!.

Chariot is now the best frontier exploration company on AIM. Period. And I bet Newlands capital think the same. Add to this the reducing free float and it becomes a perfect storm for a sustained trend upwards in share price.

I continue to accumulate – on pull backs – and took a massive chunk in the 4’s and 5’s not so long back. I am sure this was helped by plenty of de-rampers’ with clever sarcastic debating points. Thank you 😉 and  I will keep on accumulating up to £1.

The day traders will come and go – I am more of a long term accumulator investor. I am convinced this will be life changing for those with a similar strategy. You know who you are . Good luck…

Mauritania and Senegal – Success and Share Price

Kosmos now have a 100% success rate in Mauritania. Cairn, despite the India tax situation is looking very strong in price action – it seems to be a classic example of bad news, positive price action pointing to something more interesting. FAR – a ‘tiddler’ now has a very high market capitalization and you have to wonder what it would be with a higher oil price. Chariot now seems to be  moving in the right direction. Buying in the 4’s and fives and upwards is the way to go for me. Latest share price – January to March 18th below – looks like Chariot is about to cross the 200dma and is now above the 20dma.

Helios Chariot - Kosmos - January - 18th March 2016

Kosmos Share Price

Cairn Energy Share Price

Cairn Energy Share Price

Far Ltd Share Price

Far Ltd Share Price

Chariot Oil & Gas Share Price

Chariot Oil & Gas Share Price

Chariot – GMP Summary

posted by riteastafrica on LSE re the pre-close operational update

17 December 2015
Chariot Oil & Gas
(CHAR LN, last price 5.2p/sh, market cap US$20m)

SUBJECT: Chariot continues to have a good balance sheet relative to its small-cap peers with $39m cash and no debt vs its market cap of $20m. Chariot is currently trading at a 50% discount to its current cash position and even after adjusting for $20m spending in 2016 on our estimates, Chariot’s market cap is currently equal to its expected 2016-end cash position. Chariot has dataroom open across its exploration portfolio and is looking for partners in return for drilling carry.

OUR VIEW: Chariot’s 2015-end cash position of $39m is higher than our estimates mainly due to management’s focus on reducing corporate and G&G costs. Chariot has a good balance sheet relative to its small-cap peers. Chariot continues to look for new venture opportunities and we believe the low oil price environment could provide Chariot with attractive and material opportunities. Chariot is looking for partners across its exploration portfolio, including Mauritania and Morocco in order to move ahead to the drilling phase. We remain confident in Chariot’s ability to deliver on its strategy of taking operated positions in frontier exploration areas and then partnering with companies in return for past costs and drilling carries. Chariot has successfully farmed out its exploration acreage previously and brought Cairn Energy into Mauritania, Woodside into Morocco and AziNam in Namibia.

DETAILS:

• Morocco: Chariot currently has dataroom open for its Rabat Deep licence (Chariot 50%, partnered with Woodside). Based on the 3D seismic shot last year, Chariot has identified a material four-way dip faulted Jurassic carbonate prospect, JP-1, with Pmean resource estimate of 768mmbbl gross. Chariot and its partners have got a nine-month extension on the current exploration period to complete analysis of the recent seabed coring programme. In the Mohammedia Reconnaissance Licence (Chariot 75%), Chariot has applied for converting the licence into an Exploration Permit. Also in Morocco, Chariot has decided to not enter into the next exploration period in the Loukos Exporation Permit (Chariot 75%) in order to focus on its Rabat Deep and Mohammedia licences.
• Brazil: Chariot has a 100% interest in four blocks in the Barreirinhas Basin offshore Brazil. Chariot has now secured Environmental Impact Assessment approval by the Brazilian authority Ibama and it plans to shoot 768sqkm of 3D seismic in Q1 2016.
• Mauritania: Chariot has an operated 55% interest in Block C-19 and its partners are Cairn (35%) and SMH (10%). Chariot has a dataroom open and plans to farm-out its interest in block C-19 in return for well carry. Chariot has mapped four prospects based on 3D seismic and this was affirmed by NSAI, an independent resource auditor, earlier in May this year. The four prospects are estimated to hold between 431mmbbl to 588mmbbl. In term

Chariot – December 2015 Timeline

Chariot just issued a new December 2015 presentation with a new timeline:

Helios Chariot - December 2015 Timeline

 

 

 

 

From October 2015 – December 2015 it shows mostly slight change or no change. Loukos in Morocco has now been dropped since October 2015:


Helios Chariot - October 2015 Timeline

 

 

 

 

This compares with September 2014:

Helios Chariot - September 2014 Timeline

 

 

 

 

The wait for a partner continues. The picture so far is items either get dropped, or they get moved out on the time-line.

Mauritania is IMO Chariots best bet for the next farm-out given the recent Kosmos success, and Senegal Success. Maybe finally ‘Closeology’ will be the trigger that Chariot has relied on for several years

I remain a buyer.

 

 

 

 

 

For the record, the 2013 timeline was:

Helios Chariot - September 2013 Timeline

 

 

 

The 2012 Time-line showed:

Helios Chariot - September 2012 Timeline