FCR – Musings

I decided to take a look at Myles (Miles) Campion on Linkedin to see if there was any information that could prove useful.

He has recently updated his profile to show the following:

Executive Director

Company Name Ferrum Crescent Limited

Dates Employed Nov 2017 – Present

Employment Duration 3 mos

Ferrum Crescent is a [1] European explorer/developer, [2] based out of London and quoted on both the [3] AIM and the ASX, we are focused on the Toral Pb/Zn deposit in northern Spain. The deposit currently has a large database of over 44,000m of drilling covering a strike extent of over 3.5km and extends to a depth of 800m, [4] it has expansion possibilities both down dip and along strike.

Current work is ongoing to define a maiden JORC resource to supply a platform for [5] further exploration and evaluation of the deposit and to define the [6] opportunity that exists within the Toral deposit.

I have added the [] for ease. My ‘interpretation’ or ‘guess’ 🙂 on this linkedin entry FWIW is

[1] – it is no longer an Australia explorer – it’s roots are now in Europe – and longer term not just Spain. It is also a developer – which shows intent to move to production in the future – this is where the big bucks are!

[2] – I expect the head office to move to London and for  future GM’s to also be based in London , I expect office Admin to move to London – except where outsourced e.g. Company Secretarial duties.

[3] AIM and ASX but no mention of JSE. Interesting but not surprising. Probably some way off but at some point I reckon FCR will de-list from the JSE and close down any other costs associated with RSA.

[4] The JORC 2012 is just the beginning. Looks like FCR expect the asset to be much bigger – the statement is quite affirmative – which is great news and ties in with Colin Bird’s comments 

[5] Reinforces [4]

[6] Defining the opportunity –  I see as FCR looking for a way to move it along the stages required to get it to production.

And then..

Over the last few weeks we have had two great days, and some minor pull back. I call that healthy market mechanics. The first jump was prior to the announcement that Colin Bird would become chairman. I doubt all the market knew that was happening but some momentum guys probably jumped on board the rising tide in any case. However if the reason for the increase was purely leakage of CB’s appointment then it would indicate the market overall showing strong approval – for me it never is one reason so I’ll reserve judgement.

We are of course still waiting for the JORC 2012 which Laurence squawked ‘‘Work with our independent geological consultant remains on track to produce our maiden JORC 2012 resource on the Toral project.’ On track means by 31st January. If this slips a tad I’ll groan but will not be too concerned. I am sure there are some market participant who might get annoyed/emotional etc which could present an opportunity, markets are, after all, a way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. Apparently. Thinking about it – maybe that’s why they will be annoyed / emotional – crafty!

DYOR. All IMO. GLA.

FCR – Peer Comparison – PNX Metals (ASX)

I read the PNX Metals presentation from December 2017 earlier today. It’s very interesting for sure. It covers a Zinc-Gold-Silver project in Northern Australia.

Based on a Zinc price of US$2,570 it claims a short 15 month payback with a $53 million capital investment, and near surface deposits.

This requires 18,300t Zinc, 14,700 Oz Gold, 1.4Moz Silver – equivalent to 39,100 tonnes ZnEq metal in the ground (%grade * tonnage) to be mined per annum.

With those economics I would suggest there will definitely be partners joining up to bankroll this.

I like the way PNX have presented the Project Snapshot below. Hopefully FCR can present similar in the not too distant future.

PNX also claim it is undervalued relative to peers. Latest snapshot is Aus$13.9m (GBP equivalent of £8m)

PNX ZnEq tonnage – metal in the ground – is much smaller than Toral – based on the Toral NI 43-101.

Hopefully the FCR JORC 2012 for Toral due this month (January 2018) will improve on the NI 43-101.


 

 

FCR – A quck view on the SP

As can be seen below, I am not a Technical Analyst. I am only interested in support, resistance, sometimes key moving averages, and peer comparisons – fundamental stuff. I am more interested in scenario’s – the what if’s – short through to long term.

The recent rise will be due to several different factors. There is never one simple reason. Ever. In my opinion the key ones are:

 

  1. Recognition that FCR has longevity – the rush for the exit in the past was due to shareholders being fearful of the future
  2. Colin Bird coming on board as Chairman – it seems that more people approve than disapprove. I approve BTW.
  3. Miles Campion’s credentials – geologist, fund manager, he knows full well what he has in the palm of his hand at present, and believes in the asset.
  4. Cash – two placings in short succession has raised a chunk of money, there is no debt, the execs have deferred salaries, and this sends a good message to the market
  5. TR1’s – several recently, post the resignation of JT – and the price has started its price recovery since the resignation.
  6. The Asset – In comparison with its peers it is well placed in terms of tonnage and grade and its Spanish location with well supported infrastructure and well understood mining laws.
  7. Lot’s of speculators waiting for others to move first to give validity to their thought processes
  8. Zinc – it continues to climb in price which gets it on the radar of the institutions, and mining consolidators who want to acquire assets – this is as much a short term play as a medium and long term play – great for those wanting baggers.

The asset is very valuable. FCR was fortunate to get it. It’s a funny old world. But this could be the making of a decent sized mining company and the spring board to much more.

All IMO. DYOR. GLA.

FCR – a very good week – but much further to go

The market was going to turn at some point, and turn it did! Some such as ‘Docholiday’ described the turnaround this week as ‘simple  market mechanics’ and I agree.

When a share has been battered by poor sentiment for so long, when shareholders worry whether the company will exist, then never mind the asset they have, there will be a rush for the door and the price plummets. Those who have not exited will be annoyed and frustrated.

However, some interesting things have been happening, and the appointment of Miles Campion, the departure of Justin Tooth, and then the injection of cash by Colin Bird, and the scene was already set for CB to become Chairman imo and for the turnaround to begin.

More importantly, with the soundings coming out about the quality of the asset, and some simple joining of the dots before the JORC 2012 is released, the writing was on the wall and it said ‘recovery play’. Just my opinion.

So now we have CB appointed as chairman, and an interview on Vox markets yesterday, are there any more dots to join at this early stage?

Well, I think so, and here us my interpretation FWIW.

The announcement said :

“I am pleased to be joining Ferrum Crescent which is a highly focused company with a developing European lead zinc portfolio. The management team has a highly motivated approach to the Spanish lead Zinc Toral project, which is a project with [1] strong underlying fundamentals and [2]  numerous upside potential. Additionally I perceive a European renaissance in base metal mining and the team is [3] well equipped to search out, acquire and develop European base metal opportunities.”

I have [] the key stand-outs for me and my reading of the comment.

[1] – the existing NI 43-101 is strong, but the JORC 2012 will help us understand how strong (Note: within the next 13 trading days the JORC 2012 is expected to be announced to the market.)

[2] – this is interesting, and is best explained in the Vox podcast which I see as further potential at Toral in terms of size of asset in addition to the JORC 2012 – bear with me as the Vox podcast talks about possible expansion at the Toral site

[3] – FCR is a likely become a key vehicle for building further company interests throughout Europe – this is a longer strategic view imo – which requires Toral to deliver first. Lago second? And then Third? This now requires FCR to move at pace.

Vox Podcast

Then we go to yesterday’s podcast, and after playing multiple times looking for a few clues in CB’s comments such as:

  • A company with a great advanced major project (Toral)
  • Driven colleagues [Miles & Laurence]
  • Talk of silver mentioned 2 times
  • Immense upside [for the asset and for FCR]
  • Right decision, right place, right time [yes!]
  • Huge database backing, not fully interpreted, but modern technology allows improved faster analysis, with Miles Campion into the detail [Hurrah – let’s focus on one thing!]
  • Miles – geologist – fund manager – ability to analyse and an ability to commercialise, and impressed with his plan formulation [back to the interview with Miles]
  • Chief Executive Laurence (? news to me ?)
  • Toral ‘Open ended to the east, and potentially to the south’ [Even bigger asset than that analysed to date?]
  • ‘Joy to be buying a ticket when it’s a micro cap’ [That’s why I am here!]
  • The cost of buying [via drilling etc.] the database [alone] , and the market cap, are misaligned [The cost to drill and analyse this asset over many years must have been very large for sure]
  • Internally convinced it’s a much bigger ‘animal’ than one sees [we heard you Colin :-)]
  • [Market Capitalisation] Value is related to size, grade, contained metal
  • Next 2-3 years – disconnect between demand and supply – junior mining sectors, 2018, 2019 will attract more money into the sector, and already seeing signs of institutions [investment] coming back
  • Sees FCR having good institutional support in the future [if it’s as big as you are hinting at then yes!]
  • Zinc Lead in a country with transparent legislation. Spain a joy, mining legislation is well understood and well conducted [and great beer and Tapas :-)]

CB Reasons to follow:

  1. A large deposit, with opportunity to be much larger and attractive to the trade
  2. A large database not yet fully interrogated
  3. Transparent jurisdiction – good for the portfolio short and long term

In addition, Laurence Read posted on VOX 12/1/2018

  1. ‘Next stage of our transformation of FCR [is] to focus on exploration and transactional value. I have followed Colin’s companies for the whole of my career in mining and he brings a rare skill set; exploration and development linked to commercial realisation ‘
  2. ‘Work with our independent geological consultant remains on track to produce our maiden JORC 2012 resource on the Toral project. Apologies to shareholders but just to be clear (and fair) on everyone I can’t give individuals guidance on size, grade and the silver- you will have to wait for the fully accredited report.’
  3. ‘Following release of [the] JORC report on Toral we shall also be talking about peer comparisons on a project level, and looking at what our (your) project looks like in the context of listed companies’.

Overall Interpretation

  1. High probability there will be a silver credit in the JORC 2012 – this helps project economics
  2. High probability the JORC 2012 will show a larger asset, and higher grade than the NI 43-101
  3. Very high probability there will be commentary around potential asset expansion at Toral – which would imply more tonnage, more metal in the ground etc
  4. Very high probability there will soon be commentary and management support to get the share price moving North [Peer comparisons to show how undervalued we are], along with various presentations on the FCR roadmap – how we get to move to production
  5. Very high probability there will be an up-tick in market commentary and market institutional awareness

I am looking forward to 2018 with FCR, we are at the very start of a long runway and multi-bagging capability from the off. There will be up’s and down’s but the trend is now our friend…

DYOR. ALL IMO. GLA.

FCR v Consolidated Zinc

Consolidated Zinc is listed on the ASX with a resource interest located in Mexico. It has a market cap at time of writing of A$10.89m equivalent to 6.3m GBP.

A recent, well constructed presentation, shows a CZL JORC 2012 section with CZL owning 51% of an asset with a claimed ‘clear pathway to 100% ownership near term ‘

Repeat – CZL owns 51% of a JORC 2012 Mineral Resource of 968,000T @ 15.9% Zn+Pb (154,000t contained metal (Tonnage * grade) );

Now compare 50% of 154,000 tonnes metal with that owned by FCR (NI 43-101) and the contrast is stark  – and that’s before the Toral JORC 2012 due any time soon with expected (IMO) higher tonnage and grade lands.

Further comparisons with Peers on ASX:

As at 7th January 2018, a quick market comparison shows, according to Hotcopper :

Epic TZN RVR IBG HRR AZI MCT CZL PNX FCR
Mkt Cap

A$

299.0m 146.9m 40.6m 170.3m 13.15m 20.17m 10.89m 12.08m 6.11m
Mkt Cap

GBP

173.24m 85.1m 23.52m 98.7m 7.61m  

11.68m

 

6.3m 6.99m 4.5m

However, in the UK the market cap for FCR is 2.37m GBP on LSE.

Further, the CZL presentation shows the following (FCR was excluded presumably because they were not a renowned Zinc play at that time). Energia was also renamed Alta Zinc.

I expect once the JORC 2012 for FRC is published for the FCR team to push hard on getting that rerate.


 

CZL also notes that it has the highest grade Zinc exposure in ASX.  It also has one of the lowest tonnages on ASX and it is Tonnage * Grade that the money men look at for obvious reasons.

Nevertheless it’s an interesting graph and I expect FCR to be right up there come the JORC 2012 release.

 

And a useful comparison provided by Ironbark is shown below. Contained metal is Tonnage * Grade.

FCR would come in above Heron based on the NI 43-101 alone and before the recent extra exploration drilling. Roll on that JORC 2012!

Note that NCZ is now A$502.9m Market cap and not A$50m market cap when this snapshot was taken…yes – it really has exploded…

Next Steps for FCR Post Jorc 2012

An interesting comparison to make is that of FCR with  Red River Resources listed on ASX. A previous comparison with Alta Zinc was also very interesting!

RVR has a market capitalisation of A$146.9m Aus (It’s breen higher) – equivalent to £85.1m Sterling.

 

 

They have a few extra metal credits, but much less tonnage, and likely less high grade than Toral.

History is also interesting – showing a short time from the restart sudy to production:

October 2014

Red River completes acquisition of Thalanga Operations Red River raises A$3.6m (20m shares at A$0.18/share) to fund exploration and restart activities at Thalanga Operations.

December 2014

Red River commences exploration activities at Thalanga Operations.

March 2015

Red River Resources wins Asian Exploration Deal of the Year for its acquisition of Thalanga Zinc Project

October 2015

Red River Resources completes Thalanga Restart Study, highlighting the project’s potential low operating risk, capital cost and operating cost

August 2016

Assays from discovery hole at Liontown East confirm very high grade mineralisation

December 2016

Red River Resources completes $30m capital raising to fund restart of production at Thalanga

September 2017

Concentrate production recommenced at Thalanga Zinc Project, ahead of schedule and under budget

Clearly FCR has some way to go, but with the very high tonnage,  high grade and metal credits available at Toral, and a likely superb JORC 2012 I anticipate some serious movement in progressing a JV to fund the eventual mining.

The JORC 2012 will  need to be exceptionally good. I suspect it is.

FCR is in the position of having near surface high grade Zinc. Working that first and getting cash in will help develop the rest of Toral. And then there’s Lago….one step at a time.

DYOR. IMO. GLA.

 

 

Interesting Mineral Comparison – FCR v Alta Zinc

Alta Zinc’s latest December JORC 2012 estimate:


 

FCR’s Latest NI 43-101 Resource Estimate

(JORC 2012 due in early 2018) – currently NI 43-101 – 8.7m tonnes


 

 

Note: it’s the combination of Grade and Tonnage that are important. FCR has high grade, high tonnage with the expectation from me that this will improve when the JORC 2012 is announced

  • In regards to FCR in 2011  the Zinc tonnage was 514,910 tonnes (262,562 + 252,348)  compared with Alta Zinc 163,000 tonnes (107+56).  That’s three times as much!
  • In regards to FCR in 2011  the Lead Tonnage was 421,732 tonnes (214,416 + 207,316) compared with Alta Zinc Lead of 43,000 tonnes. That’s 9.8 times as much.

And then there’s Silver which hopefully (highly likely IMO) will get a credit in the JORC 2012.

Total Lead and Zinc tonnage is 936,642 tonnes for FCR verses 206,000 tonnes – that’s 4.5 times as much. Now go and do your sums on how much this could be worth…

When you look at the market capitalisation of both companies  it’s the other way around, Alta Zinc is 4 times that of FCR. The new management will seek to rectify this IMO.

And given that the recent drilling found high grade zinc at surface up to 300m which was not previously accounted for in the FCR NI 43-101 and I can see the reason for the excitement about the better than expected results.  I can also see why Colin Bird decided to become a strategic shareholder.

DYOR, IMO, GLA and all that…

Interview with Myles Campion

The Vox Markets Podcast today was very good.

Miles appears to be a rare hybrid – very experienced in geology as well as finance and investment. A very good combination to have on the FCR board.

The Toral resource in Spain is clearly a very sizeable asset with an already existing compliant  NI 43-101 resource estimate of 8.6mt @ 10% – described by MC as a very good start.

Miles believes the company is undervalued and states that it is one of the reasons he joined the FCR board to take the asset it to where it should be.  Improving FCR’s market capitalisation was my interpretation. At this point in the podcast I could  not help but think that there needs to be a big economic interest and incentive for Myles and Laurence to push FCR to the limit in the future – and that this will no doubt come in the form of share options once they have got the company on an even keel. Note at this point they are not taking salaries! Brownie points indeed from all shareholders IMO. I hope this gets rectified in the new year.

The Toral asset benefits from an existing NI 43-101 and MC stated the intent to get the Toral asset stamped with a world recognised JORC 2012 resource report. My interpretation is this makes it easier for a wider range of companies, globally,  to show interest in the Toral asset.

In the recent Spain visit, Miles and the independent Addison Mining Services (charged with preparing the JORC 2012) reviewed cores –and discovered further assays – some of which are in the DB some of which are not. These are now being incorporated. My interpretation was that this was good news.

@3:10 in the recording Miles talked about the  Pictures from Laurence on VOX and said core was running at 30% Lead  Zinc-  strewth! – I had to play this several times to see if I heard that correctly! Is this anomalous? Either way he is also pushing the Silver angle and believes the silver grades are also very good and will be good for the asset. Let’s not jump the gun as shareholders, the Zn-Pb asset alone is very good, silver is a nice bonus.

In terms of comparable assets Myles mentioned that both the size of Toral and grade of mineral is very good – and that is’s a very good position to be in. He mentioned comparable assets in Italy – listed companies – e.g. 3.3m tonnes at 6.5% with a market cap 3-4 times FCR (I believe this is Energia quoted on ASX recently renamed to AltaZinc (‘to reflect the business they are now in’) with one asset – the Gorno Project – having a JORC 2012 which is where the key comparison is. Their remaning assets have no NI 43-10 or JORC 2012. We have Toral with 8-9Mt @ 10% (or more?) so go figure! It’s easy maths! For the record, as of 15th December Alta Zinc’s Market Cap is £8.13m and they have a great Zinc story.

Miles also mentioned that Central Asia Metals bought a Zinc asset in North East Macedonia [called Lynx resources] which was ‘similar’ to FCR’s but that FCR have a better grade. The SASA CPR is here. The Toral resource does indeed have superior grades of metal (over double), but smaller tonnage.  However what can be extracted is a function of grade and tonnage and one could argue that it is more efficient to mine higher grade  material!  so we’re getting there through far superior grades. Add in Lago (eventually) and we will likely exceed IMO.  The other difference is that the Macedonia asset is mature, and being mined. Even so, the CAM asset was sold for $400M which probably tells you where Myles head is at! No doubt there will be other mining companies out there who would see the Toral asset as an opportunity to put in best practices and machinery into a former mining area which has the skills and infrastructure to turn this gem into a working asset. Knock off a few quid to set up the mine (I jest) and there is a value in Toral which is way above the current £2m market capitalisation we currently have 🙂 IMO.

Note: The EBITDA for the first 6 months of 2017 for Lynx Resources was 61% (unaudited).  In addition, in 2016, the Lynx Resources Mine – SASA – produced 783,000 tonnes of ore which generated 22,515 tonnes of zinc in concentrate and 28,955 tonnes of lead in concentrate – which I think is about 6.6% overall and we have 10%+.  The SASA mine also has silver  as potentially does Toral. It looks to me like we are heading for a direct JORC 2012 comparison with the SASA mine but without the SASA mining operation.   The SASA mine is also one of Europe’s largest Lead-Zinc-Silver mines – so that gives you an indication of the size of the Toral asset. Maybe Lago will be similar in the future..?

Miles mentioned corporate restructuring activities and efficiencies to come. He said FCR will maintain the AIM listing, will review the other two on ASX and JSE and all operations to create efficiencies and to focus on the asset. My guess is that JSE and ASX will eventually be ditched, operations will regroup into the UK (great for the majority of shareholders and shareholder engagement) . This will likely save a large chunk of cash. He mentioned focusing on the Toral asset – I like it. IMO if the expense does not contribute towards FCR’s mineral assets like Toral or Lago then don’t do it! – be ruthless. In the meantime focus purely on Toral guys…

Summarising, Miles said the FCR Market capitalisation is low, but Toral is a well-advanced big enough asset in the right commodity, in a stable country which will warrant investment and scope for further expansion (which I interpreted as tonnage) as well as possible JORC 2012 silver possibilities which is an added bonus. Miles also mentioned the management team of him and Laurence Read which have done a lot in a short space of time and they will push for further advancements in the company. I believe they can do it.

With regards to the name ‘Ferrum’ I think there was a strong hint that the name will be changed. Anything that ties a company to the name of the resource type is not the way to go in the future IMO.

Given Miles financial and geological background I get the ‘feeling’ Miles knows the asset is better than the already compliant NI 43-101, and is worth a large chunk of money which at the moment is not recognised by the market.  I hope the JORC 2012 knocks it out of the park. I expect it will.

In the meantime I am convinced there are players taking advantage of the low share price, without moving the market whilst sentiment has been low. Hopefully MC and LR are starting to put things right. We shall see. I continue to accumulate. DYOR. IMO. GLA.