Chariot – Indolence or strategic inactivity

Posted by Theoryman on iii

Strategic inactivity or indolence?

Exploring for oil is a high stakes gambling game where the odds of success (real odds, not the GCoS etc) for a drill are unknown, as is the reward if you are successful.

The only thing you can control is whether you participate or not. Once you are in the game and decide to drill, the outcome is down to what happened millions of years ago.

Given what was happening to drills in offshore Namibia, why continue to drill? Would doing so be yet another example meeting Einstein’s definition of insanity?

References to “glowing in the dark”, AVO anomalies attached to superb geological structures…..; nett results were some of the most expensive bottles of oil in the history of the industry.

OK, time to get positive about Namibia, which given the price of the shares must be rated as having zero value.

The geology was far more complex than some expected and alternate lithologies can, and did, lead to the drilling of non-economic or non-hydrocarbon producing outcomes.

The goods news is they now know what was there, as opposed to what was expected. What was there fooled the mathematical model used, so there are two ways forward.

Firstly, take the present model and in light of what was found, try to adapt it for use in Namibia.

Secondly, start from scratch and develop a new model.

Either CHAR has the staff to be able to do that or it could buy in a research team ( Prof + research Fellow + research Grad + computer time, peanuts!)

I exited from from CHAR using my previously disclosed strategy and I am now back in, near to but not at the lowest Low. I am relying on the fast follower strategy being adhered to, I want them out of the game until they feel they have an edge.

The problem with CHAR is, or hopefully was, their complete inability to explain clearly, in reasonable detail, what they are doing and why they are doing it.

It is not enough to know they are processing and evaluating data for ~ 1 year. Why was it taking so long? Staffing problems, size of data, complexity of data, contradictory outcomes………..

We pay their wages and as such we deserve to be able to decide whether what they are doing is strategic inactivity or indolence?